College Football Week 8 Predictions

Last Week: 5-3 (24-23-1 overall), On Upset Alert: Clemson beat Florida State 34-28

Finally above .500 on the season, we can now all pretend that the awful week 1 predictions didn't happen ... good. Last week was interesting, here's the highlights.

Bryce Young played and looked pretty damn decent and Alabama still lost, Hendon Hooker is for real. 21/30, 5 TDs, 1 pick and 385 passing yards is a nice stat line and earned Tennessee a much deserved victory. Alabama could be in a little trouble. They can usually rely on the big plays falling their way to get out of tough games like that, is this a year without Bama in the playoffs? ... TCU vs Oklahoma State was played like a game where both teams knew that a loss killed their playoff hopes. TCU was down early and got punched hard in the gut but they dug their way out of it. Max Duggan was far from his best but he was good enough and Kendre Miller pushed his team through to the victory. Oklahoma State fought hard but TCU found the gear they needed to win that one, tough loss for Oklahoma State, big win for TCU and the playoff race for the Horned Frogs is on ... Michigan skunked Penn State and planted their flag in the playoff race but they need to be careful. Michigan State will want to ruin their season and Illinois is sneaky good. You have to get to Ohio State before you can question if a 1 loss Michigan or Ohio State makes the playoff ahead of the potentially unbeaten teams behind them ... Utah tripped up USC in a great game, meaning that the Pac 12's final hope for a playoff team is UCLA. I can't be too harsh on the Trojans, I thought they played well but that is the game when 2 very good teams play each other, someone has to lose, Utah one up'd them this time to end their playoff hopes. No chance a 1 loss Pac 12 team is in the dance. Those are the big stories but let's get onto predictions for Week 8.

Toledo (-7.5) vs Buffalo: MAC-tion baby! 2 teams who are 3-0 in the MAC and could very well play each other again for the MAC championship meet here in a pivotal MAC-chup (Ok no more MAC puns, I promise). The worry in this game is Buffalo's defense has been porous, 74th in the nation allowing 384.7 yards per game but more worrying is the 6.31 yards per play they concede. Given how DeQuan Finn has been lighting up the MAC that could be an issue. In his 3 games vs the MAC this year, Finn has 616 yards passing, 11 TDs and 0 INTs to go along with another 203 yards rushing and 1 TD. Finn has been lighting up MAC defenses and Buffalo's defense is ripe for lighting. Expect points in this one as Toledo's defense hasn't always been stout and Cole Snyder for Buffalo has 1,662 yards through the air with 11 TDs and 5 INTs but ultimately expect Toledo to keep up their torrid offensive pace going and win this game by a couple of scores PICK: Toledo (-7.5)

North Texas vs UTSA (-10): UTSA will have revenge on the mind here after North Texas ruined UTSA's perfect season last year and they have a very good chance to do it. A big worry for North Texas is they have only scored a TD on 18/32 trips to the red zone this season. That is a lot of points left on the board against a UTSA offense that scores a lot, only being held under 30 once this season by Texas. North Texas is going to need more than 3 points from their red zone trips if they wish to stay close in this one. The cure for what woes North Texas however could be playing the 104th ranked red zone defense in the nation. It is the movable object vs the stoppable force, somebody will have to find a solution to their problem in this one. Ultimately I like UTSA to win this game because I think they are the better team but 10 points is a lot of wiggle room. Add on the fact that both these teams are 3-0 in conference play and that the winner will be in the drivers seat in the conference and I think North Texas can do enough to keep this game close all the way down to the wire PICK: North Texas (+10)

Texas (-6.5) vs Oklahoma St: At the moment it is unclear if Spencer Sanders will play or not this weekend at home against Texas. That is huge because this Texas team is vulnerable through the air, Hunter Dekkers, JT Daniels and Donovan Smith have all gone for 250+ on them in the last month. If Sanders were healthy they would be the worst opponent possible for Texas right now however even if he plays, how healthy will Sanders be? He's struggling with a shoulder right now, that's not the kind of thing a QB just shakes off to throw 50 times for 300 yards. With Quinn Ewers back the pendulum of advantage swings the other way because all the problems that Texas has defending the pass, Oklahoma State does as well. I hate road favorites against strong teams especially when they are this heavily favored but given the circumstances, I'll take the healthy QB to slice up the poor defense more than the banged up one PICK: Texas (-6.5)

UCLA vs Oregon (-6): People are really on the Oregon train at the moment and I get it, Bo Nix has been absolutely lights out recently. In his last 5 games, Nix has 12 Passing TDs, 8 Rushing TDs and only 1 turnover in that time. What is being lost in this game is that UCLA also has a very good QB who has been statistically better than Nix all season. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has shot straight into the Heisman contenders talk with 15 TDs to only 2 INTs and in UCLA's 2 games against ranked opponents, he's thrown 7 TDs and 1 INT. He's not the running threat that Nix is but he is very good and this spread is not respecting at all what UCLA has done this season. This game will be very close, and go a very long way to determining UCLA's relevance in the playoff picture, I don't know who will win but I expect it to be tighter than 6 points PICK: UCLA (+6)

Kansas State vs TCU (-3.5): Which Kansas State shows up to this game? If it's the Kansas State that beat Oklahoma and obliterated Missou, this will be a fun firefight of a game, if it's the K-State that lost to Tulane and survived Iowa State however, TCU should walk all over them. Unlike Kansas State, we know exactly what TCU is, they are a high octane offense who's defense is leaky but manages to find the key stops when they need them (see the 4th quarter shut out they pitched last week). Max Duggan and Kendre Miller have this offense running at full force and they will be able to put up a bunch of points. They face an interesting proposition this week however in SR QB Adrian Martinez. Martinez has only thrown for 900 yards and 4 TDs this season but he has ran for 546 yards and 9 TDs this year. On top of those stats, Martinez is yet to turn the ball over so you not only get a QB who is a dynamic runner but also a responsible one. If this Kansas State offense is on they may be able to hang with TCU but there is too many variables in Kansas State's play to make me comfortable picking them in this one. I still believe that TCU is the best team in the Big 12 and they continue to be in this one PICK: TCU (-3.5)

Miss State vs Alabama (-21): The Alabama revenge game is very real, they haven't lost back to back games since 2013 and has only ever lost back to back regular season games once in 2007 under Nick Sabin. This is a well coached team who does not take losing lightly. Alabama getting light up through the air by Tennessee might be concerning when you have the 8th ranked passing offense coming into Bryant-Denny Stadium but it is worth noting how different of a passing offense this is to Tennessee's. Tennessee averages 11.04 yards per pass whereas Miss State only averages 7.21. Miss State wins through the air via chunk plays and not the deep ball, that is where Alabama got exploited by Tennessee. 21 points is a lot of points against a decent Miss State squad but I feel like Alabama might look to make a statement in this one so reluctantly I will take Bama winning by a lot PICK: Alabama (-21)

Syracuse vs Clemson (-14): Syracuse is 6-0, that is shocking but they have played a very easy schedule leading up to that 6-0. It is worth noting that beating NC State last week does mean they have a high profile scalp on the ledger but this is THE test for how good this Orange team is. The Orange are 8th ranked in total defense, 28th in team sacks and 32nd in turnover margin. All of this is to say they have a very strong defense. Offensively, Garrett Shrader has done well in the passing game with 12 TDs and only 3 INTs and Sean Tucker is running for a 5.2 yard average and 6 TDs. The offense is good, not great but good enough with the defense they have. Clemson on the other hand has been very unimpressive so far this season. They have allowed teams to hang around in games way too often and some day they will get burned on it. DJ Uiagalelei has been very good behind center for the Tigers and Will Shipley is always dangerous on the ground but this line is way too high, even if Clemson do win look for Syracuse to be closer than 14, I think their defense has earned at least that much respect PICK: Syracuse (+14)

On Upset Alert: Like a thief in the night, Tulane has very quietly snuck into the top 25 and they have very much earned it. Road wins over Kansas State and the tough Houston Cougars as well as a home win over the always tough out ECU. Memphis scores a ton and gives up a ton and if you look at their season, only Miss State in week 1 has truly pulled away from them. These Tigers are tough, their will be a lot of points scored in this one and the AAC continues to produce fun games and tough teams but for the fun story of Tulane being ranked for the first time in this Millennium, I hope they can pull this one out.