College Football Conference Championship Predictions

Final Season record: 33-36-1 (damn that last week)

Bonus Pick: Akron vs Buffalo (-11): Buffalo should win this game and secure their bowl eligibility the question is will they win by 11? Akron has been very bad this year and I doubt they have much motivation to play this game at all at 1pm on a Friday so look for the team with actual motivation to come out here and get the job done and head into bowl season. PICK: Buffalo (-11)

C-USA Championship: North Texas vs UTSA (-8.5): North Texas has been a thorn in UTSA's side the last couple of seasons, ending their perfect season last year and then in their matchup this season causing the Roadrunners all kinds of headaches before falling 31-27. Austin Aune had a great season throwing the ball for the Mean Green, with 3,115 yards and 31 TDs. Those numbers are good enough to see North Texas have the 30th ranked pass offense in the nation, that pales in comparison however to the 11th ranked pass offense of UTSA. Frank Harris' 3,524 yards with 27 TDs was a great final season for the Roadrunners and even though 3rd option receiver De'Corian Clark will be out for this game they still have Joshua Cepheus and Zakhari Franklin to carry the load. Expect a shootout and expect real fireworks between two very strong offenses but ultimately Frank Harris will leave his final home game for the Roadrunners with an impressive victory and one last C-USA title PICK: UTSA (-8.5)

MAC Championship: Toledo (-1.5) vs Ohio: Man how a couple of weeks can change a game. Ohio was a high flying passing offense with Kurtis Rourke (Canadian shoutout) and looked like the class of the MAC, then Rourke goes down injured and now they're underdogs against a not great Toledo team. Toledo comes into this game losing 2 in a row in wildly different circumstances. Against Bowling Green, they moved the ball well, put up 35 points but still lost to 42 point effort from Bowling Green, which was their most against an FBS opponent this season. One week later, against a Western Michigan team that had nothing to play for, they put up 14 points and lost to a team that passed for 51 yards. CJ Harris struggled in his collegiate debut against the aforementioned Bowling Green Falcons putting up only 196 yards on 10/21 passing but Ohio won 38-14 thanks to 3 rushing TDs from Harris. That has got to be the game plan against a Toledo rush defense who was smack dab in the middle of the pack this season (72nd in the nation). The player for Ohio who will decide this game is Sieh Bangura. A very strong season from the freshman saw him run for 884 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.0 yards per carry and they will need his strongest performance to be able to handle the loss of Rourke at QB. The difference maker for the Rockets will be CB Quinyon Marshall. 5 INTs on the year and 2 of them were returned for scores, on a defense full of difference makers in the secondary, he is the biggest one. If Marshall can snag a pick or 2 off of Harris it gives the Rockets a great chance to leave with the MAC title but this team has shot itself in the foot way too much recently for me to have any faith in them here. Look for the Bobcats to pound the rock on the ground, have a big game from Bangura and leave MAC champs. PICK: Ohio (+1.5)

Sun Belt Championship: Costal Carolina vs Troy (-8.5): Let's get the rant out of the way first; this game should be James Madison vs Troy. James Madison bullied Costal in their final game of the year on route to a 47-7 victory and sole possession of first place in the Sun Belt East, that however doesn't matter because the NCAA continues to have stupid rules. James Madison is not eligible to play in bowl games or win the conference in it's first 3 years in the FBS because of reasons, I do not know what these reasons are other than to appease traditional powers but I am not behind the closed doors. Change this stupid rule NCAA, for once in your miserable existence do the right thing. Now then on to the game, this game boils down to one simple plot point: Does Grayson McCall play? If he is healed from his foot injury, the Chanticleers have a real chance as Grayson McCall will be far and away the best player on the field even at 80%. If McCall can't go in this game, let's just say that McCall's backup, Jarrett Guest, has 1 TD and 4 picks. Troy's defense is truly elite, ranking 12th in the NCAA in total defense, in amongst the likes of Alabama, Florida St, Utah and Penn State. It's 82nd ranked offense however is more comparable with Missou, Rice and NIU. If Troy are going to win a game against a McCall led CCU, Gunnar Watson needs to take care of the ball. Watson has 10 TDs and 10 INTs on the year and he cannot be giving McCall (who has 21 TDs and 1 INT BTW) short fields. For Troy their offense quite literally runs through Kimani Vidal. The RB had 1006 yards and 9 TDs on the year and they will look to him to control the tempo of this game and make life easier for Watson in the passing game. I am going to assume that McCall will not be good to go however and Troy's elite defense is going to be able to cause havoc (maybe score a TD or 2 themselves) and the offense will not have to do a ton of work for the Trojans to easily cover this spread, win the Sun Belt and cap off a fantastic first season for coach Jon Sumrall. PICK: Troy (-8.5)

AAC Championship: UCF vs Tulane (-4): On November 12th, the UCF Knights went to New Orleans and ended the Green Wave's perfect conference season with a 38-31 victory. You may be inclined to believe that because of that UCF has a sort of advantage coming into this game, but that would not seem to be the case at all. Since that game Tulane took out some aggression on a strong SMU team, beating them 59-24 before going to Cincinnati and ending their hopes at playing in this game by beating them 27-24. UCF since that game lost to the Naval academy, then played a 1-10 USF team that had struggled to even look competent in half their games (they lost 54-28 to a Temple team that finished 3-9) and got taken to the brink by said USF, nearly blowing a 28-7 lead before finally winning 46-39, yikes. UCF has been a bit of a Jekyll and Hide team this season, impressive wins against teams like Cincy and Tulane often overshadowed by loses against teams like the Navy and ECU and Louisville. Tulane has many ways to beat you; they have a 1,000 yard rusher in Tyjae Spears (who also had 14 TDs on the season), their QB threw for 21 TDs with only 4 picks (he also ran for 9 TDs as well) and they had 7 different players catch 20+ catches and all of them had 200+ yards. For UCF, the offense is much more simple. John Rhys Plumlee can throw the ball (2,195 yards, 13 TDs and 7 INTs) but their offense relies much more on the run, with Plumlee, RJ Harvey and Isaiah Bowser all over 650 yards rushing on the season. Harvey is the big play back who will see the ball a lot between the 20s and once the ball is in the redzone, Bowser is a big bruising back who can get the ball in between the tackles and bust through defenders. If UCF can run the ball like they did against Tulane in the first matchup they are well in line for the win here but I expect Tulane to make the adjustments needed to control the run game and Tulane will use what ever method is available to them on offense to pull out the win here and find themselves in a new years six bowl game PICK: Tulane (-4)

Mountain West Championship: Fresno State vs Boise State (-3): These two teams played each other on October 8th with Boise State beating Fresno State 40-20. Ignore that game all together, it plays no bearing in this matchup. The Bulldogs were without Jake Haener who was out with an ankle injury and the Broncos would turn the ball over to Freshman QB Jaylen Green in that game and never look at another QB this year. Since coming back from injury Haener has looked incredibly sharp. After shaking of the rust against SDSU, Haener has not thrown an interception at all. Both these teams have strong running backs to back up their strong QB play. Fresno's Jordan Mims has ran for 1,078 yards and 14 TDs while Boise's George Holani has ran for 1,059 yards and 10 TDs. This game is a real tossup between two teams with incredibly strong offenses, kind of middling defenses and coaches who like to play almost the exact same style. When looking for an advantage in games like this, I will always lean to experience so look for the Senior Haener to get it done for the Bulldogs over the Freshman Green. PICK: Fresno State (+3)

PAC 12 Championship: Utah vs USC (-2.5): When Utah beat USC in mid October, I don't know if people could have predicted the win and in situation USC would be in coming into the PAC 12 title game but here we are. Since that loss USC has been excellent with hard fought wins over very strong UCLA and Notre Dame teams in the last two weeks, the Trojans come into this game battle tested and hungry. Utah on the other hand would have thought themselves out of this game after their loss to Oregon 2 weeks ago, however they took care of Colorado, got help from Oregon State and Washington and here we are. For USC, this game is all about Heisman front runner Caleb Williams. Williams threw for 3,712 yards this year with 34 TDs and just 3 INTs, it would be hard to imagine USC losing if he plays his best. USC's defense has been agressive and caused a lot of turnovers however they are 91st in the nation in Total Defense and are a serious question mark for them. It all comes down to if Cam Rising and the #20 Utah Offense can keep up with the #5 offense in the nation. Rising has had good moments this year throwing for 2,629 yards and 22 TDs with 7 INTs, however compared to Williams he has been far less consistent. If Rising can avoid mistakes, this Trojan defense can bend and be broken. This is going to be a high scoring game and both offenses will produce and picking the traditional power always hurts my heart however in this instance Williams overall better play on the season leads me to believe he will have a larger say in the outcome of this game than Cameron Rising. Look for this USC defense to get a takeaway or 2 and look for USC to get a great result not only for them but for the PAC 12 who have been a bit of an afterthought conference in the last couple of years. PICK: USC (-2.5)

Big 12 Championship: Kansas State vs TCU (-2.5): Kansas State was up 28-10 at the half of the first matchup between these two teams, that was the closest TCU came to losing this season. Kansas State is a strong team who became even strong after switching to Junior Will Howard at QB but this team will live and die on the performance of RB Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn was 16th in the nation in Rushing Yards (1,295) and is a huge part of how this offense operates. TCU also has a strong RB in Junior Kendre Miller, who himself ran for 1,260 yards and 16 TDs. TCU's real strength advantage in this game though comes at QB where Max Duggan has been phenomenal for the Horned Frogs; 3,070 yards, 29 TDs and 3 INTs in an outstanding season. All these names aren't even to mention potential #1 WR in the upcoming draft Quintin Johnston. At the end of the say, TCU has more ways to win this game than K-State and that will be a huge part in deciding this one. TCU can kill you with the run or the pass and that will be enough to see them through to the CFP PICK: TCU (-2.5)

SEC Championship: LSU vs Geogia (-17.5): LSU has been a weird team, impressive wins over Alabama and Ole Miss feel completely undone by that strange performance to end the season against Texas A&M. Jayden Daniels is very talented and does almost everything well but their defense can be very hit and miss. Georgia on the other hand is the picture of consistency, almost making 12-0 look too easy. Only one team played Georgia to a game this season that was within 10 points (and it was shockingly enough Mizzou) and Kentucky and Tennessee were the only 2 others within 20. This 17.5 point line seems high but honestly, it's because it is what Georgia has been doing to everyone this season. This game will stay close early and Jayden Daniels will absolutely cause some issues with his arm and legs but Georgia will adjust and will just be too good in this one. I'll hedge my bets on the points but expect this to still be a thorough victory for the Bulldogs PICK: LSU (+17.5)

BIG 10 Championship: Purdue vs Michigan (-16.5): Somehow Purdue ended up being the team to win the Big 10 west. Their losses to Wisconsin and Iowa made to not matter as they watched those teams crumble down the stretch and did just enough to get to be Michigan's whipping boys. The only thing of note in this game is the end of Blake Corum's season, which is a damn shame because he had a strong Heisman case and dominating Purdue to get this Michigan team to the playoff would have really helped that. That being said, Donovan Edwards is coming off of running for 216 yards in the real Big 10 championship game against Ohio State and will enjoy his victory lap in a Michigan walk over. PICK: Michigan (-16.5)

ACC Championship: Clemson (-7.5) vs North Carolina: We need to readjust the schedule because the weekend starts with all the fun games and ends with this? The Disappointment Bowl?? Clemson survived conference play somehow nearly bungling every game along the way but going unbeaten and they play a North Carolina team that sounded like fun until back to back losses against Georgia Tech and NC State had them backing into this one. Drake Maye is a very good QB for the Tar Heels with 35 TDs to only 5 INTs on the season but he has really struggled in the last two losses for UNC and if they want to have a chance in this one he needs to re-find his form. Clemson will need Will Shipley to carry this team as he has all season, 1,092 yards and 14 TDs for the Sophomore on a Clemson team that has had some real issues under center. DJ Uiagalelei will start for the Tigers but he has really tapered off as the season has progressed and will need to find his A game for the Tigers to end the season with something of a positive. Clemson has had a bad habit of letting weaker teams hang around and it has finally come back to haunt them a couple of times, I think the same thing happens here but your guess is as good as mine, what a disappointing way to end a fun conference championship week PICK: North Carolina (+7.5)

Bonus: Navy is a better team than their 4-7 record says. Tough losses against teams like SMU, Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Air Force combined with wins over UCF and ECU tell you of a team with a lot of heart and talent even if the record doesn't show it. That being said, Army has a chance to make themselves bowl eligible with a win over a hated rival and I always like that story line, I back Army to win the 123rd Army-Navy game.