College Football Predictions Week 4

Last Week: 3-2 (overall 9-14), On Upset Alert: NC State beat Texas Tech 27-14

Hey a good week from me! NC State did away with Texas Tech so we have yet to get an upset right but another game that NC State would have probably liked to handle with a little more panache but hey, a win is a win ... I was originally planning to pick Washington over Michigan State as my upset alert but I didn't really consider that an upset, most lines had shifted to the point where Washington was the favorite. The flaws for the Spartans are very apparent at this point. Michigan State is +1 in the turnover margin but hasn't gotten a single INT this year. A secondary can get away without making plays against Akron and Western Michigan but once you start playing good teams it is going to bite you and bite them it did ... I told you Kansas was being slept on. After decimating a strong Houston team 48-30 the Jayhawks are now 3-0 to start the season, they haven't won more than 3 games in a season in 12 years! This phenomenon however spans beyond Kansas, if you look at all of the predominant basketball schools in the FBS they are out to spectacular starts. Between Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, Indiana and Syracuse their combined records are 18-0! This is not a drill, the basketball schools are coming to try and be respectable in football too, no one is safe ... Herm Edwards was fired by Arizona State after their embarrassing loss to Eastern Michigan, not a terrible surprise to be honest, ASU paid a decent chunk of money for Herm to come to Arizona and so far, it has been abject failure. Deion Sanders would be a fantastic get for the Sun Devils but I can't imagine he leaves Jackson State for a hard reclamation project and I can't imagine Kalani Sitake leaves a BYU that is joining the Big-12 for Arizona State so the options seem to be guys like Bill O'Brien and Matt Rhule which would be along the path of the Herm Edwards signing (hire a guy who recently failed miserably in the NFL). I believe however they need to take a different route and if he is available I think Byron Leftwich would be a great addition for this team, he has been successful as the OC for the Bucs and could be a real injection of life into this fairly dead looking program. With that out of the way lets look ahead to what week 4 has in store for us.

Duke vs Kansas (-7): Duke may be feeling a little over looked in this one, after all they are also a deceptively good 3-0 team who are a traditionally good basketball school trying to prove they can hang with the football programs but honestly they just aren't as good as Kansas. Duke survived a Northwestern team who would follow up their hard fought loss to Duke with a hard fought loss to FBS outfit Southern Illinois. The main concern is outside of their shutout win against Temple (who are very offensively challenged), Duke's Defense has been ... leaky. 23 points given up to Northwestern followed by 20 last week against FCS team NC A&T (which is the most A&T has put up all year). Kansas on the other hand very much look the real deal and while their defense has also not been a juggernaut you can forgive allowing points to schools like West Virginia and Houston. Their lowest point total scored this year is 48 last week against Houston and Jalon Daniels has thrown 7 TDs this season already, and his arm may not even be his strongest weapon as he has been a force on the ground with 80+ yards in back to back games. Duke has been good and I don't want to take away from what they have done so far but Kansas has looked a step above. Normally these are the kind of games where you worry about looking ahead to a tougher matchup (Kansas has Iowa State next week) but given Kansas' history as bottom feeders I think they will live in this moment and keep the good times rolling with a big win over the Blue Devils PICK: Kansas (-7)

Minnesota (-3) vs Michigan State: I know they lost to Washington and have a ton of question marks but Michigan State get 3 points at home is harsh for this matchup. For Minnesota, their offense lives and dies with Mo Ibrahim, the guy is unbelievable, if it wasn't for age and injuries he would be talked about among the best RBs in this class for sure. With that being said, Michigan State has a strong front 7 who will be able to slow down Ibrahim as much as possible, meaning that Minnesota will have to pass to beat Michigan State, this inherently is where the problem lies. Michigan State has a weak secondary that is ripe for exploitation but Minnesota does not have a QB who can exploit that. Tanner Morgan threw for 278 yards in his first game against FCS' Western Illinois, since that game he hasn't hit the 200 yard mark, and that was against New Mexico State and Colorado, not really powerhouse defenses. If Michigan State can continue to shut down the run effectively (as they have in their first 3 games) then Payton Throne will be able to put up enough points to pull out the dub at home for the Spartans PICK: Michigan State (+3)

Clemson (-7) vs Wake Forest: If you look beyond the score lines, Clemson's start to the season has been ... unimpressive really. First game out against Georgia Tech is an emphatic 41-10 win however that game was 14-10 with about 20 minutes to go, it was a game well into the 3rd quarter against a bad Georgia Tech side, then they beat Furman 35-12 but against FCS opposition you really expect more out of a CFP contender but they did coast through the 2nd half of that game so that is forgivable, finally last week they beat they beat Louisiana Tech 48-20 but that game was only 13-6 at the half and they let LA Tech hang around with some 4th quarter touchdowns instead of putting the boot to them. If this trend continues against Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons (which is still the best name in college sports) will leave this game with a memorable home victory. Dabo Sweeney however has never lost to Wake Forest as a head coach and Wake Forest's defense is still just as weak as it was last season. Clemson should be able to create openings with Will Shipley running the ball and DJ Uiagalelei (I am so happy I type this instead of speaking it) will be able to get his yards through the air. Clemson should win this but if they come out flat again ... well let's just say this is my least confident pick of the week PICK: Clemson (-7)

Tennessee (-10.5) vs Florida: This is one of those theory vs reality kind of games. See in theory the #11 team in the nation vs the #20 team in the nation will be a close hard fought matchup that will go either way, in reality however this game could not be further apart. Florida started out the season absolutely living it up beating Utah 29-26 and life was good, since then however it has been a borderline disaster. QB Anthony Richardson has 0 TDs and 4 INTs this season and Florida's pass offense has been non existent. Their defense kept the Kentucky score line respectable and the last week against a very not good USF team, the Gators survived a game they looked certain to win at half time and then certain to lose by the end. Tennessee on the other hand has a QB in Hendon Hooker who since the start of last season has 36 passing touchdowns, 7 rushing touchdowns and 3 INTs. Not much to this one really, Florida got overrated by an upset win and now fall right back to reality, there is a lot of rebuilding left to be done for Billy Napier PICK: Tennessee (-10.5)

Arkansas vs Texas A&M (-2): Man Arkansas' pass defense is REALLY bad. Ben Bryant has thrown the ball really well to start the season so conceding 325 yards through the air to him is not great but it can happen. Then you play South Carolina, Spencer Rattler has had an awful start to the season having thrown 2 picks against Georgia State so this is a good chance for the Razorbacks pass defense to get its barring about it and ... oh they gave up 376 yards to South Carolina. Ok that is bad but now Arkansas plays FCS team Missouri State who granted are 2-0 but having played 2 FCS teams themselves there is no way that ... HOW DID THEY ALLOW 357 YARDS TO WHATEVER THE HELL A JASON SHELLEY IS?!?! This is not the hardest game for the Razorback pass defense as Max Johnson wasn't outstanding by any stretch in his 17-9 win last week over Miami but for crying out loud Arkansas stop ANYTHING PLEASE! A&M are favorites despite getting upset by App State a couple of weeks ago and that's because this Arkansas defense couldn't stop a cold and this Aggies defense is really good. A&M's defense will do more than enough to stop the Razorbacks and the Arkansas defense will probably continue to collapse into itself and allow as many yards as humanly possible to another Quaterback who has no reason to rip them apart PICK: Texas A&M (-2)

On Upset Alert: Congratulations Oregon! That was certainly an impressive win over BYU, celebrate away. After all you have Washington State this week who you walloped last season and lost to Central Michigan in last years Sun Bowl. Ignore the fact that they are 3-0 this year including a very impressive road win in Wisconsin and that their defense has been incredibly stingy this year not allowing a 20 point game yet, you are Oregon, you will handle these upstarts with no issue right? That is the thought of the voters in the nation who have largely over looked the Cougars but as 6.5 point underdogs, the Cougars are a very real threat and if Oregon believes in themselves a little too much after the BYU win they will find themselves on the wrong side of a tougher road game then may have been initially thought when the schedule dropped.